The security situation in Nigeria at the beginning of 2026: a short assessment

Andrei-Vasile RUS¹

Executive summary

Nigeria is currently experiencing a pronounced deterioration in its security environment, a crisis compounded by deep-seated economic challenges and the persistent insurgency of jihadist groups and bandit networks. An analysis of data from January to February 2026 reveals a troubling geographic concentration of political violence in Borno State. More critically, the period is marked by an intensification of attacks deliberately targeting civilian populations. This trend underscores not only the state’s limited capacity to pre-empt such attacks but also its inability to mount a sufficiently robust and effective response.

Context                                              

In recent months, Nigeria has experienced a period of pronounced instability. The challenges confronting the nation are multidimensional, spanning economic and security sectors. Economically, Nigeria has encountered significant difficulties, driven notably by high inflation and an ineffective fiscal policy. Concomitantly, the country faces an acute military crisis stemming from persistent attacks on civilians and soldiers by terrorist groups and bandit networks. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), Islamist violence remains heavily concentrated in northeastern Nigeria, accounting for over 85% of all Islamist-related incidents in 2025 (Serwat, Nsaibia, Birru, & Bofin, 2026).  

The framing of these attacks, particularly the narrative that Christians are the primary targets of jihadist violence, has drawn international attention. The United States, invoking this narrative, threatened unilateral military action on Nigerian soil (Salako, 2025). Shortly after the threats, the United States launched several Tomahawk missiles in December 2025 against targets in northern Nigeria where an ISIS-affiliated group known as Lakurawa was reportedly located (Lukiv & Okafor, 2025).

Despite this external intervention and the pressure exerted on the Nigerian state, attacks on civilians have persisted. This continuity underscores a fundamental lack of state preparedness across two critical domains: counterterrorism (offensive measures to neutralize threats) and anti-terrorism (defensive measures to protect populations).

Methodology

Present analysis draws on data from political violence events recorded in Nigeria between January 1 and February 7, 2026. The dataset includes incidents targeting both civilians and military personnel. For each event, information was systematically collected regarding the location, number of victims, target type, and the affiliation of the perpetrating group (where attributable).

Incidents Report for January 2026

Date	Attack name	State	No. of victims	Target	Affiliation	Source
04.01.2026	Attack in a village in Kabe district	Niger	At least 30	Civilians	?	(Adeniyi, 2026)
05.01.2026	Attack on Kwara highway	Kwara	At least 4	Civilians	?	(Mbachii, 2026)
05.01.2026	Borno ambush	Borno	At least 9	Military	ISWAP	(Kingimi, 2026)
19.01.2026	Two-Church incident	Kaduna	166 people kidnapped	Civilians	?	(Hazzad & Kingimi, 2026)
20.01.2026	Zamarfa ambush	Zamarfa	5 people killed	Military	?	(Reuters, 2026)
21.01.2026	Military formation attacked	Borno	At least 8 people killed and 50 kidnapped	Military	Boko Haram	(Kolawole & Kingimi, 2026)
27.01.2026	Damasak region attack	Borno	7 people killed and 13 people captured	Military	Boko Haram	(Reuters, 2026)
29.01.2026	Sabon Gari attack	Borno	25	Civilians + Military	Boko Haram	(Kingimi, 2026) (France 24, 2026)
29.01.2026	Military base attack	Borno	At least 9 people killed and 16 injured	Military	ISWAP	(Kingimi, Kolawole, & Adewale, 2026)

Incident Reports for the first week of February 2026

Date	Attack name	State	No. of victims	Target	Affiliation	Source
04.01.2026	Woro & Nuku attack	Kwara	170	Civilians	Boko Haram	(Hazzad, 2026)
04.01.2026	Doma village attack	Katsina	21	Civilians	?	(News and Press Release, 2026)
07.01.2026	Kauru village attack	Kaduna	3 people killed and one person kidnapped (Catholic priest)	Civilians	?	(Reuters, 2026)

Data Analysis

Examination of the dataset, structured around variables such as date, attack name, state, location, victims count, target type, and group affiliation, has led to the following observations:

In January:

• The main state in Nigeria targeted by attacks was Borno, both in terms of the number of attacks and the number of victims.
• Of the 9 identified attacks, 3 were on civilians, 5 were on military personnel, and one was a mixed attack, in which both civilian and military victims were involved.
• Of the 9 identified attacks, 3 could be attributed to the Boko Haram group and its cells, 2 could be attributed to the ISWAP group, and the remaining attacks could not be attributed to any group.

In February:

• As of the time of this assessment (first half of the month), three attacks have been recorded in February, all of which specifically targeted civilians.
• Of these, one could be attributed to the Boko Haram group (Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad).

Comparative observations:

• A preliminary comparison between the two months—though limited by the partial data available for February—indicates a notable intensification of political violence in February, with a discernible shift toward targeting civilian populations.
• Additionally, the considerable proportion of unattributed attacks in January points to existing gaps in intelligence and attribution capabilities.

These patterns collectively underscore the limited capacity of state security forces to effectively counter diverse forms of political violence—including terrorist operations and banditry—through conventional means.

Conclusions

Overall, the data indicate a deterioration in the security environment, marked by attacks on civilians and military personnel in various regions of Nigeria. Although the attacks in February 2026 mainly targeted Muslim communities, continued violence could rapidly escalate regional dynamics. If future attacks continue to target Christians, the United States will have an opportunity to use the argument of protecting Christians to intervene militarily in Nigeria.

Bibliography

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1. [1]  Andrei-Vasile RUS  is an MA student in Security Management in Contemporary Society and an MA student in  Conflict Analysis and Management, at Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania. His academic interests focus on international security, geopolitics, private military companies and the African continent. ↩︎